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href=\"\/\"><span class=\"iconfont icohome\"><\/span>化工包装网<\/a> > <a href=\"\/info\/\">行情<\/a> > 正文\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<div class=\"pageWrap_conent_left\">\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"ndelleft\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ndeltitle\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t生意社：2025年聚酯瓶片年度走势分析\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"nedate1\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"nfabu\">2025-12-30 10:44:03 来源：生意社<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-box\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"nshare\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"iconfont\"><\/span>分享到：\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-weixin\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img src=\"\/static\/images\/weixin.png\" class=\"repost-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-qrcode\" style=\"display: none;\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"J_qrcode\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img alt=\"二维码\" src=\"http:\/\/graph.100ppi.com\/phpqrcode\/?size=3&magin=2&leve=H&url=http:\/\/www.chempacknet.com\/info\/detail-20251230-201798.html\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"erweimtext\">用微信扫描二维码<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$('.share-weixin').hover(function () {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$('.share-qrcode', this).show()\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}, function () {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$('.share-qrcode', this).hide()\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t})\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-type\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a onClick=\"shareToSinaWB(event)\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img src=\"\/static\/images\/weibo.png\" class=\"repost-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-type\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a onClick=\"shareToQzone(event)\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img src=\"\/static\/images\/icon_Qzone.png\" class=\"repost-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tvar _title, _source, _sourceUrl, _pic, _showcount, _desc, _summary, _site,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_width = 600,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_height = 600,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_top = (screen.height - _height) \/ 2,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_left = (screen.width - _width) \/ 2,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_url = '',\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_pic =\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t'http:\/\/inews.gtimg.com\/newsapp_bt\/0\/9440673471\/641';\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tfunction shareToSinaWB(event) {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tevent.preventDefault();\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar _shareUrl = 'http:\/\/service.weibo.com\/share\/share.php?&';\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&url=' + encodeURIComponent(_url || document.location);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&title=' + encodeURIComponent(_title || document.title);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&source=' + encodeURIComponent(_source || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&sourceUrl=' + encodeURIComponent(_sourceUrl || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&content=' + 'utf-8';\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&pic=' + encodeURIComponent(_pic || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.open(_shareUrl, '_blank', 'width=' + _width + ',height=' + _height + ',top=' + _top + ',left=' +\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_left + ',toolbar=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=no, resizable=1,location=no,status=0');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t}\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tfunction shareToQzone(event) {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tevent.preventDefault();\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar _shareUrl = 'http:\/\/sns.qzone.qq.com\/cgi-bin\/qzshare\/cgi_qzshare_onekey?';\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += 'url=' + encodeURIComponent(_url || document.location);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&showcount=' + _showcount || 0;\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&desc=' + encodeURIComponent(_desc || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&summary=' + encodeURIComponent(_summary || '文字描述');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&title=' + encodeURIComponent(_title || document.title);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&site=' + encodeURIComponent(_site || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&pics=' + encodeURIComponent(_pic || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.open(_shareUrl, '_blank', 'width=' + _width + ',height=' + _height + ',top=' + _top + ',left=' +\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_left + ',toolbar=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=no,resizable=1,location=no,status=0');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t}\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"nclear\"><\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"necontent1\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<p>2025年聚酯瓶片价格呈现明显的阶段性波动特征，整体运行区间为5388-6447元\/吨，年内波动幅度达到19.7%。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>一、2025年市场核心特征：宽幅震荡，供需博弈激烈<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>价格走势：<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><img src=\" https:\/\/img.100ppi.com\/uppic\/2025\/12\/30\/46195ccd5e214f334598a1e00a492f7b.jpg\" style=\"width: 480px; height: 250px;\" \/><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第一季度：高位坚挺<br \/>\r\n市场开局稳健，1-3月订单成交价格区间为6260-6520元\/吨。年初，在成本支撑和相对稳定的供需下，价格维持在6380-6430元\/吨的高位。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第二季度：“过山车”式行情<br \/>\r\n本季度行情剧烈波动。4月初价格经历近千点暴跌，但随后在行业集中减产等因素推动下，于6月收复全部失地。5月价格先扬后抑，月末均价为6077元\/吨，下半月受原油下跌拖累曾触及6000元\/吨关口。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第三季度：重心下移<br \/>\r\n市场呈现弱势下行态势。至9月30日，PET均价跌至5870元\/吨，较7月初的6067元\/吨下跌3.50%，反映出供应压力及内需疲软的影响。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第四季度：成本驱动反弹<br \/>\r\n在原料成本强势支撑下，市场于年末反弹。12月22-23日出现快速拉涨，26日华东现货均价收于6080元\/吨，周涨幅达6.29%，为全年划上了一个强劲的句号。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>二、影响行情的关键因素分析<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>成本驱动(高度敏感)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>PTA和乙二醇是主要原料，其中PTA成本占比约64%。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>瓶片价格与PTA价格的相关系数高达0.9，成本传导迅速。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><img src=\" https:\/\/img.100ppi.com\/uppic\/2025\/12\/30\/8189552fb740444692ebc0da2817d36e.png\" style=\"width: 480px; height: 250px;\" \/><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>供应端：扩张与收缩的拉锯<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>2025年供应格局复杂：<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top: 0px !important; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">扩张潮<\/span>：全年新增产能约<span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">310万吨<\/span>，增速达16%，占聚酯新增总产能的一半。主要来自仪征化纤、三房巷、富海集团等企业的投产。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top: 0px !important; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;\"> <\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top: 6px;margin-top: 0px !important; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">减产潮<\/span>：为应对潜在过剩，行业自5月起启动大规模自律减产。万凯、华润、三房巷、逸盛等头部企业合计减产约<span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">336万吨<\/span>产能，占当时总产能的16.3%，推动行业开工率从接近90%的高位一度降至75%左右。产能扩张与主动收缩并存，成为稳定市场的关键。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>需求端：内弱外强，结构变化<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>内需疲软：1-10月软饮料产量同比下降5.7%，但瓶片消费量增长6.5%，反映出单位包装用量增加或产品升级。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>出口强劲：是最大亮点。1-12月累计出口650万吨左右，同比大增28.5%，有效对冲了内需不足。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>新兴应用：热灌装茶饮、乳制品包装等领域需求快速增长(增速6%-9%)，成为新增长点。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>政策端：“反内卷”与行业自律<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>工信部引导行业抑制“内卷”，推动落后产能淘汰与控产减产。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>行业自律机制初显成效：当加工差跌至300元\/吨低位时，集体减产推动加工差回升至550元\/吨以上。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>政策有望改善长期供需结构，宣告产能高速扩张阶段结束(预计未来增速将显著放缓至7.5%)。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>三、2026年一季度市场展望：<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>成本支撑下的区间震荡价格区间：预计在6000-6400元\/吨震荡，重心较2025年四季度有所上移。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>主要逻辑：<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>支撑因素：成本端(PTA\/乙二醇)预计高位震荡；出口需求保持韧性；春节前后季节性备货。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>制约因素：华润珠海、山东富海等新装置投产带来供应压力；国内绝对库存量仍偏高；内需复苏有限。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>加工费：预计维持在300-500元\/吨的历史偏低水平，反映行业竞争依然激烈。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>总结<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>2025年聚酯瓶片市场在产能扩张、需求分化、政策干预的多重力量博弈下剧烈波动。行业通过主动减产自律来平衡供需、修复利润。展望2026年初，市场将在成本强支撑与供需宽松格局的夹缝中运行，价格上行空间受限，预计以区间震荡为主基调。出口表现和行业自律的持续性将是未来关键观察变量。<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"declare\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t【版权声明】秉承互联网开放、包容的精神，本网欢迎各方(自)媒体、机构转载、引用我们的原创内容，但请严格注明来源；同时，我们倡导尊重与保护知识产权，如发现本站文章存在版权问题，烦请将版权疑问、授权证明、版权证明、联系方式等信息，发邮件至<a href=\"mailto:db123@netsun.com\">db123@netsun.com<\/a>，我们将第一时间核实、处理。\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"pageWrap_box_right\">\r\n \r\n\t <div><img src=\"http:\/\/www.agrochemnet.com\/static\/images\/cgcuohe.jpg\" width=\"390\"><\/div>\r\n \r\n <div class=\"cle\"><\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"supplier_news\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"supplier_news_title_box\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"supplier_news_title\"><span class=\"supplier_news_title_bg\"><\/span>近期行情<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"supplier_news_list\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"supplier_news_li\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_number\">1<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/detail-20260210-5297497.html\" title=\"PET商品报价动态（2026-02-10）\" class=\"supplier_news_li_textwen\">PET商品报价动态（2026-02-10）<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"supplier_news_li_date\">2026-02-10<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"supplier_news_li\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_number\">2<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/detail-20260210-5295097.html\" title=\"2月10日生意社PET基准价为6327.50元\/吨\" class=\"supplier_news_li_textwen\">2月10日生意社PET基准价为6327.50元\/吨<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"supplier_news_li_date\">2026-02-10<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"supplier_news_li\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_number\">3<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/detail-20250408-4233246.html\" title=\"巴西对马来西亚和越南PET树脂发起反倾销调查\" class=\"supplier_news_li_textwen\">巴西对马来西亚和越南PET树脂发起反倾销调查<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"supplier_news_li_date\">2025-04-08<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"supplier_news_li\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_number\">4<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/detail-20250108-3995852.html\" title=\"马来西亚对涉华PET树脂作出反倾销初裁\" class=\"supplier_news_li_textwen\">马来西亚对涉华PET树脂作出反倾销初裁<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"supplier_news_li_date\">2025-01-08<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"supplier_news_li\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_number\">5<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/detail-20260206-202243.html\" title=\"生意社：本周(2026.2.2-2.6)聚酯瓶片先大跌后企稳\" class=\"supplier_news_li_textwen\">生意社：本周(2026.2.2-2.6)聚酯瓶片先大跌后企稳<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"supplier_news_li_date\">2026-02-06<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"supplier_news_li\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_number\">6<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"supplier_news_li_text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/detail-20260130-202155.html\" title=\"生意社：1月聚酯瓶片呈先弱后强月末冲高回落\" class=\"supplier_news_li_textwen\">生意社：1月聚酯瓶片呈先弱后强月末冲高回落<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"supplier_news_li_date\">2026-01-30<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\t<div id=\"footer\">\r\n <div class=\"footer-wrapper\">\r\n <div class=\"footer-menu\">\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"http:\/\/corp.toocle.com\/about.html\" target=\"_blank\">关于我们<\/a> |\r\n <a href=\"\/service\/service.html\">网站建设<\/a> |\r\n <a 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>\r\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"iconfont\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t企业\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"\/info\/\" class=\"font_b\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"iconfont\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t原料行情\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"\/showroom\/\" >\r\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"iconfont\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t微展厅\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\r\n <a href=\"\/buy\/\" >\r\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"iconfont\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t原料采购\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"\/expo\/\" >会展<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"\/scf\/\" >供应链服务<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rawmex.cn\/\" target=\"_blank\">交易中心<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mall.chemnet.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">化工网商城<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"\/scm\/\">报价通<\/a>\r\n\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t<\/div> \r\n\r\n <div class=\"search_new\">\r\n<div class=\"fl search_input\">\r\n <form id=\"search\" name=\"search\" action=\"\/search\/\" method=\"post\" >\r\n<input type=\"text\" class=\"input_h\" name=\"terms\" value=\"\" style=\"width: 368px;\">\r\n<select id=\"d\" name=\"d\">\r\n<option value=\"product\">产品<\/option>\r\n<option value=\"company\">企业<\/option>\r\n\r\n<\/select>\r\n<input class=\"search_button\" type=\"submit\" value=\"搜索\" name=\"btn_search\" onclick=\"if(search.d.value=='chem' || search.d.value=='toocle') search.target='_blank';javascript:submit();return false;\">\r\n<\/form> \r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"fl hot_new\" style=\" margin-left:20px;\">\r\n<strong>热搜<\/strong>：\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/product\/search-%E5%8C%96%E5%B7%A5%E6%A1%B6-1.html\" target=\"_blank\">化工桶<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t、\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/product\/search-PE%E6%A1%B6-1.html\" target=\"_blank\">PE桶<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t、\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/product\/search-%E5%90%A8%E8%A2%8B-1.html\" target=\"_blank\">吨袋<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t、\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/product\/search-%E5%82%A8%E7%BD%90-1.html\" target=\"_blank\">储罐<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n<\/div> \r\n\t<div class=\"pageWrap_content ndel_main\">\r\n\t\t<div class=\"ditext1\">\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"\/\"><span class=\"iconfont icohome\"><\/span>化工包装网<\/a> > <a href=\"\/info\/\">行情<\/a> > 正文\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<div class=\"pageWrap_conent_left\">\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"ndelleft\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ndeltitle\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t生意社：2025年聚酯瓶片年度走势分析\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"nedate1\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"nfabu\">2025-12-30 10:44:03 来源：生意社<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-box\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"nshare\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"iconfont\"><\/span>分享到：\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-weixin\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img src=\"\/static\/images\/weixin.png\" class=\"repost-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-qrcode\" style=\"display: none;\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"J_qrcode\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img alt=\"二维码\" src=\"http:\/\/graph.100ppi.com\/phpqrcode\/?size=3&magin=2&leve=H&url=http:\/\/www.chempacknet.com\/info\/detail-20251230-201798.html\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"erweimtext\">用微信扫描二维码<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$('.share-weixin').hover(function () {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$('.share-qrcode', this).show()\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}, function () {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$('.share-qrcode', this).hide()\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t})\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-type\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a onClick=\"shareToSinaWB(event)\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img src=\"\/static\/images\/weibo.png\" class=\"repost-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"share-type\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a onClick=\"shareToQzone(event)\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img src=\"\/static\/images\/icon_Qzone.png\" class=\"repost-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tvar _title, _source, _sourceUrl, _pic, _showcount, _desc, _summary, _site,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_width = 600,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_height = 600,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_top = (screen.height - _height) \/ 2,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_left = (screen.width - _width) \/ 2,\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_url = '',\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_pic =\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t'http:\/\/inews.gtimg.com\/newsapp_bt\/0\/9440673471\/641';\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tfunction shareToSinaWB(event) {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tevent.preventDefault();\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar _shareUrl = 'http:\/\/service.weibo.com\/share\/share.php?&';\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&url=' + encodeURIComponent(_url || document.location);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&title=' + encodeURIComponent(_title || document.title);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&source=' + encodeURIComponent(_source || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&sourceUrl=' + encodeURIComponent(_sourceUrl || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&content=' + 'utf-8';\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&pic=' + encodeURIComponent(_pic || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.open(_shareUrl, '_blank', 'width=' + _width + ',height=' + _height + ',top=' + _top + ',left=' +\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_left + ',toolbar=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=no, resizable=1,location=no,status=0');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t}\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tfunction shareToQzone(event) {\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tevent.preventDefault();\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar _shareUrl = 'http:\/\/sns.qzone.qq.com\/cgi-bin\/qzshare\/cgi_qzshare_onekey?';\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += 'url=' + encodeURIComponent(_url || document.location);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&showcount=' + _showcount || 0;\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&desc=' + encodeURIComponent(_desc || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&summary=' + encodeURIComponent(_summary || '文字描述');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&title=' + encodeURIComponent(_title || document.title);\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&site=' + encodeURIComponent(_site || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_shareUrl += '&pics=' + encodeURIComponent(_pic || '');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.open(_shareUrl, '_blank', 'width=' + _width + ',height=' + _height + ',top=' + _top + ',left=' +\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t_left + ',toolbar=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=no,resizable=1,location=no,status=0');\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t}\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"nclear\"><\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"necontent1\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<p>2025年聚酯瓶片价格呈现明显的阶段性波动特征，整体运行区间为5388-6447元\/吨，年内波动幅度达到19.7%。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>一、2025年市场核心特征：宽幅震荡，供需博弈激烈<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>价格走势：<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><img src=\" https:\/\/img.100ppi.com\/uppic\/2025\/12\/30\/46195ccd5e214f334598a1e00a492f7b.jpg\" style=\"width: 480px; height: 250px;\" \/><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第一季度：高位坚挺<br \/>\r\n市场开局稳健，1-3月订单成交价格区间为6260-6520元\/吨。年初，在成本支撑和相对稳定的供需下，价格维持在6380-6430元\/吨的高位。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第二季度：“过山车”式行情<br \/>\r\n本季度行情剧烈波动。4月初价格经历近千点暴跌，但随后在行业集中减产等因素推动下，于6月收复全部失地。5月价格先扬后抑，月末均价为6077元\/吨，下半月受原油下跌拖累曾触及6000元\/吨关口。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第三季度：重心下移<br \/>\r\n市场呈现弱势下行态势。至9月30日，PET均价跌至5870元\/吨，较7月初的6067元\/吨下跌3.50%，反映出供应压力及内需疲软的影响。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>第四季度：成本驱动反弹<br \/>\r\n在原料成本强势支撑下，市场于年末反弹。12月22-23日出现快速拉涨，26日华东现货均价收于6080元\/吨，周涨幅达6.29%，为全年划上了一个强劲的句号。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>二、影响行情的关键因素分析<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>成本驱动(高度敏感)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>PTA和乙二醇是主要原料，其中PTA成本占比约64%。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>瓶片价格与PTA价格的相关系数高达0.9，成本传导迅速。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><img src=\" https:\/\/img.100ppi.com\/uppic\/2025\/12\/30\/8189552fb740444692ebc0da2817d36e.png\" style=\"width: 480px; height: 250px;\" \/><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>供应端：扩张与收缩的拉锯<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>2025年供应格局复杂：<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top: 0px !important; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">扩张潮<\/span>：全年新增产能约<span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">310万吨<\/span>，增速达16%，占聚酯新增总产能的一半。主要来自仪征化纤、三房巷、富海集团等企业的投产。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top: 0px !important; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;\"> <\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top: 6px;margin-top: 0px !important; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">减产潮<\/span>：为应对潜在过剩，行业自5月起启动大规模自律减产。万凯、华润、三房巷、逸盛等头部企业合计减产约<span style=\"font-weight: 600;\">336万吨<\/span>产能，占当时总产能的16.3%，推动行业开工率从接近90%的高位一度降至75%左右。产能扩张与主动收缩并存，成为稳定市场的关键。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>需求端：内弱外强，结构变化<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>内需疲软：1-10月软饮料产量同比下降5.7%，但瓶片消费量增长6.5%，反映出单位包装用量增加或产品升级。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>出口强劲：是最大亮点。1-12月累计出口650万吨左右，同比大增28.5%，有效对冲了内需不足。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>新兴应用：热灌装茶饮、乳制品包装等领域需求快速增长(增速6%-9%)，成为新增长点。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>政策端：“反内卷”与行业自律<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>工信部引导行业抑制“内卷”，推动落后产能淘汰与控产减产。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>行业自律机制初显成效：当加工差跌至300元\/吨低位时，集体减产推动加工差回升至550元\/吨以上。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>政策有望改善长期供需结构，宣告产能高速扩张阶段结束(预计未来增速将显著放缓至7.5%)。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>三、2026年一季度市场展望：<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>成本支撑下的区间震荡价格区间：预计在6000-6400元\/吨震荡，重心较2025年四季度有所上移。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>主要逻辑：<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>支撑因素：成本端(PTA\/乙二醇)预计高位震荡；出口需求保持韧性；春节前后季节性备货。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>制约因素：华润珠海、山东富海等新装置投产带来供应压力；国内绝对库存量仍偏高；内需复苏有限。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>加工费：预计维持在300-500元\/吨的历史偏低水平，反映行业竞争依然激烈。<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>总结<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>2025年聚酯瓶片市场在产能扩张、需求分化、政策干预的多重力量博弈下剧烈波动。行业通过主动减产自律来平衡供需、修复利润。展望2026年初，市场将在成本强支撑与供需宽松格局的夹缝中运行，价格上行空间受限，预计以区间震荡为主基调。出口表现和行业自律的持续性将是未来关键观察变量。<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div 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